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Course launch calculator
Forecast a course launch from your email list: how many read the sales page, how many buy, and what you keep after refunds.
Course launch conversion rates: a worked forecast
A launch forecast is two percentages multiplied together: the share of subscribers who click through to the sales page, and the share of those visitors who buy. Multiplied, they give the share of your whole list that buys. At the calculator’s defaults (20% visit, 5% buy) that is 1% of the list.
Both numbers are uncertain, so it helps to run three scenarios before you commit to a launch date or an ad budget. The table uses a 5,000-person list, a $199 price and a 5% refund rate.
Creators often plan around something like 0.5% to 2% of a warm list buying during a launch, with higher results usually coming from lists built around the course topic and warmed up with free lessons or a waitlist. Treat that as a rough planning range. Your own past launches and email click rates are a better guide.
The visit rate depends on how many launch emails you send and how good they are. A launch is often a short sequence: a few emails that teach or tell a story, an open-cart announcement, reminders, and a last email before the deadline. Each one gives subscribers who missed the previous email another chance to click. If your usual newsletter gets a 3% click rate, a 20% visit rate over the whole launch assumes the launch emails do far better, so check your assumption against your real click rates.
Price changes the maths more than people expect. Going from $199 to $399 doubles revenue only if conversion holds, and it rarely holds completely. On the other hand, buyers at a higher price are often more committed, and the support load stays about the same. A payment plan or a cheaper starter tier can win back some of the conversion you lose.
Remember the costs the calculator leaves out: card processing, your course platform’s fees, commissions you pay partners who promote the launch, and taxes. Together they can take a meaningful share of gross sales, so set your revenue target after those costs.
| Scenario | Visit sales page | Visitors who buy | Buyers | Revenue after refunds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 10% | 2% | 10 | $1,891 |
| Middle (defaults) | 20% | 5% | 50 | $9,453 |
| Strong | 30% | 8% | 120 | $22,686 |
How it works
Most launches are sold by email: a share of your list visits the sales page, and a share of those visitors buy.
Buyers = list × visit rate × conversion. Revenue = buyers × price, minus refunds. Payment processing and platform fees are not included.
Revenue per subscriber is a useful number to track between launches: it tells you what growing the list is worth.
Questions
What conversion is realistic?
It depends on how much trust you have built and how specific the course is. Warm lists that asked for the course convert much better than cold ones.
Should I offer a payment plan?
Payment plans often raise conversion for higher prices. Run the calculator with the plan’s total price and a slightly higher conversion to compare.
How big does my email list need to be to launch a course?
Work backwards from your goal. To net $5,000 at $199 with 5% refunds you need about 27 buyers, and if 1% of your list buys, that is a list of about 2,700. Smaller lists can launch well too, especially with a higher price or a very specific topic.
What refund rate should I expect?
It depends on your refund policy, your price and how closely the course matches the sales page. Long, no-questions-asked guarantees tend to bring more refunds. Use your own past refund rate if you have one, and keep the policy clear on the sales page.
Should I pre-sell my course before creating it?
Pre-selling at a lower founding price tests demand before you spend weeks recording. If too few people buy, you refund them and have learnt something cheaply. Run the calculator at the founding price to see whether the numbers justify building it.
Is a launch better than selling a course evergreen?
A launch concentrates sales into a short window with a deadline, which usually lifts conversion. An evergreen funnel sells steadily through an automated email sequence and needs a constant flow of new subscribers. Many creators launch first to learn what converts, then move to evergreen.
How much should I charge for my first online course?
Price from the outcome the course delivers, not its length. A course that helps someone earn money, save time or fix a costly problem supports a higher price than general education. Try two or three prices in the calculator, lowering conversion for the higher ones, and compare revenue.